$AVAV

Does he own it?

Repeated explicit first-person ownership: declared himself heavily long, said he added on a dip and "personally ended up buying," then in performance recaps lists it among positions he rode up and later among his biggest personal losses, noting he de-risked but kept smaller concentration. Clear held position; no explicit % weight given.

His thesis

Framed AVAV as a top pure-play drone-warfare beneficiary of US military escalation (Venezuela, Iran, Greenland) and the large proposed defense budget, citing kamikaze/Switchblade drones via the Replicator program, a multi-billion backlog, a major contract, and very high revenue growth. He treated a sharp selloff (SCAR contract news) as a market overreaction and a buying opportunity rather than a thesis break.

How his view evolved

Started as a high-conviction "omega long" and dip-buyer; through Feb still cited it as a war-trade winner. By March he admitted the drone sector, including AVAV, became one of his biggest losers, said he de-risked but kept a smaller position, while still believing in the long-term story.

Key points

• Explicitly long and added on dips, treating a contract-news selloff as overreaction
• Thesis tied to drone warfare and defense-spending catalysts (Venezuela/Iran)
• Later conceded it became one of his worst trades; cut down but kept a small holding

Derived from a holistic read of his public posts — paraphrased, never quoted. See his actual posts about $AVAV on X ↗