What changed in the book, and why it matters — a plain-English daily read on how Serenity's reconstructed positions shift: new names, rising conviction, quiet exits.
It was a quiet day from Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed positioning this site tracks. He published no new trades and named no tickers, instead offering a brief macro reflection that ties back to his broader worldview. The trigger was a widely circulated comment from Elon Musk suggesting artificial intelligence could surpass human capability across essentially all fields by the end …
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, spent Monday reacting to two developments: a new AI product from Meta and a sharp rebound in crypto prices. Neither prompted a fresh trade, but both fed directly into his running thesis about where AI demand lands upstream. Meta's "Muse" as a demand telegraph. Serenity said he came away impressed after testing Meta's…
Serenity, the small-cap-focused stock-picker whose reconstructed trades this site tracks, spent Monday reaffirming one of his oldest convictions — the memory supercycle — while sketching out where he thinks the next, less obvious opportunity lies. He opened by noting a strong session for the two giants at the heart of the trade: SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, the world's dominant memory makers…
It was a quiet, off-market day for Serenity, the stock-picker known online for building his portfolio around the upstream "chokepoints" of the AI hardware buildout — the obscure laser, substrate and epiwafer suppliers that feed the optical roadmaps of Nvidia and the big cloud operators. Rather than share any new thesis or trade, Serenity spent his single post of the day musing about his own reach…
It was a slow day in the feed of Serenity, the deep-value stock-picker known for hunting the obscure upstream suppliers that feed the AI buildout — the lasers, substrates and packaging tools that the biggest chip names quietly depend on. On this Friday, he stepped away from tickers entirely. His only remarks concerned a geopolitical headline about the United States apparently taking control of Gr…
Serenity, the stock-picker who back-maps the AI buildout to find the small upstream suppliers everyone quietly depends on, spent the day defending his memory thesis and dumping a wide-ranging set of supply-chain observations. The memory case, quantified. In his first note he laid out projected second-half 2026 price hikes across legacy memory — SLC NAND up triple digits, high-capacity NOR near do…
A relatively quiet day for Serenity, the stock-picker tracked on this site, but the one item he flagged spoke directly to the thesis he has been pushing for months: the idea that the AI buildout's real scarcity lies not in the flashy chip names but in the humble light sources that feed optical networking. Serenity pointed to fresh industry commentary from Foxconn — the Taiwanese electronics giant…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose reconstructed positioning this site tracks, spent Tuesday sharpening his long-running memory supercycle thesis — the idea that AI demand has pushed DRAM, HBM and NAND flash into a multi-year supply shortage — and framing it against mainstream commentary he views as backwards. The Cramer contrast. Serenity flagged remarks from CNBC's Jim Cramer that were …
A weekend of commentary from Serenity — the stock-picker known for front-running the AI buildout by buying its obscure upstream suppliers — centered less on new positions than on defending the durability of the AI capex cycle itself. Oracle's resale data as a depreciation counterargument. Serenity flagged a detail from Oracle's (ORCL) recent earnings that he said he had missed: the company report…
It was a quiet day on the ticker front for Serenity, the stock-picker known online as @aleabitoreddit, who named no new positions and offered no fresh trades. Instead, the message was about mission rather than markets. A milestone and a mission statement. Serenity used the day to reflect on crossing one million followers, framing the moment less as a personal achievement than as a reason to doubl…
On a day he described as dominated by macro noise, stock-picker Serenity used the backdrop to restate—not soften—his conviction in the two themes at the center of his book: AI photonics and memory. The demand signal. Serenity anchored his case to a set of capex forecasts he reads as a telegraph for where AI spending lands. He flagged NVIDIA's (NVDA) projection of roughly $1.3 trillion in hypersca…
Serenity, the small-cap-focused stock-picker who back-maps the AI buildout to its upstream chokepoints, spent his commentary today reinforcing one of his highest-conviction ideas — the memory shortage — after fresh signs of pricing pressure out of China. Memory inflation reaches China's accelerators. Serenity flagged reports that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) — the stacked DRAM bolted next to AI GP…
Serenity, the stock-picker whose portfolio is reconstructed from his public posts, spent Wednesday reinforcing his central bet — that the light sources feeding AI data-center optics are the next great supply bottleneck — with fresh evidence rather than new positions. A channel check from the show floor. The day opened with what he described as a crowdsourced report from a community member at CIOE…
Serenity, the small-cap-focused stock picker who tries to front-run the AI buildout by owning the obscure upstream suppliers of lasers and materials, spent Monday laying out an unusually detailed case that the market for a specific kind of laser is running short of supply — and that his top holding is arriving just in time to exploit it. The laser in question is the CW (continuous-wave) laser, th…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker known for front-running the AI photonics buildout by buying obscure upstream suppliers, spent Monday taking stock. After a recent market pullback, he counted which of his calls were still up more than 100% year-to-date — and landed on roughly 19 names spread across his usual themes. The list read like a tour of his book. In memory, his structural "supercycle" …
Markets got a fresh reminder on Saturday of just how frothy the private-to-public pipeline has become, and Serenity — the small-cap stock-picker who trades under the handle @aleabitoreddit — weighed in with a wry observation about the scale of the deals now being floated. His comment centered on SpaceX (SPCX), the Elon Musk-led rocket and satellite company whose long-anticipated public listing ha…
Serenity, the stock-picker who tracks the obscure upstream suppliers feeding the AI buildout, spent Thursday largely on geopolitics — specifically the rare-earth and materials fight between the US and China, which sits directly beneath his supply-chain thesis. Rare earths and the Japan signal. Reacting to reports that China has halted some rare-earth shipments to the US, Serenity argued the more …
A quiet day for the stock-picker known as Serenity, whose lone observation centered less on a new position than on a market pattern he found hard to ignore: Taiwan's equities are wildly outrunning their US and European counterparts. Serenity, who builds his portfolio by back-mapping the AI supply chain, pointed to the striking divergence between Taiwanese stocks and the rest of the developed worl…
A quiet start to the month for Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, but the one item he did raise pointed straight at his core obsession: the widening gap between AI compute demand and the industry's ability to build it. His prompt was a fresh headline that Anthropic, the AI lab behind the Claude models, has signed a roughly $35 billion compute agreement with Lam…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker who front-runs the AI buildout by buying the obscure upstream suppliers — the lasers, substrates and test tools — that the big chip names quietly depend on, had two distinct threads today: a deep-value legacy-memory idea and a fresh reading of the optical supply chain straight from TSMC. A legacy-memory anomaly His memory theme rests on the idea that AI is dr…
Serenity, the stock-picker whose framework centers on buying the small upstream suppliers that feed the AI buildout, spent Friday dissecting an earnings call from the company he considers his single highest-conviction holding — and he came away frustrated. The name at the center. Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) is a tiny Sweden-listed maker of indium-phosphide (InP) continuous-wave lasers — the ligh…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose framework hinges on buying the obscure upstream suppliers that feed the AI buildout, spent Friday building his case for his single largest conviction position and reinforcing his memory thesis. The Sivers capacity argument. The bulk of his day centered on Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), the tiny Swedish maker of indium-phosphide (InP) continuous-wave laser…
Serenity, the stock-picker who builds his portfolio by hunting for upstream "chokepoints" — critical suppliers with few substitutes that the whole AI buildout leans on — spent today pushing his long-running memory thesis into an unusual corner: the oldest, cheapest DRAM chips still in production. A new name: ESMT. His main disclosure was a fresh position in ESMT (Taiwan ticker 3006), a roughly $2…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, spent Tuesday dissecting Semtech's latest quarter — and came away impressed, even though he does not own the stock. Why Semtech matters to him. Semtech (SMTC) is an analog and mixed-signal chip supplier that Serenity files under his dominant theme: the buildout of AI optical interconnect. It sells the TIA (trans-impe…
Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, used a quiet-market day to circle back to one of his highest-conviction bets after a piece of supply-chain commentary appeared to support a call he first made earlier this year. A validation moment for the FAU thesis. The centerpiece of his day was FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (Taiwan-listed, ticker 3363), a maker of fiber …
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose reconstructed positions are tracked here, spent a quiet Saturday session sharpening a familiar critique: that the modern US IPO has stopped being a way to fund growth and become a way for early private investors to cash out at inflated marks. The Anthropic yardstick. His starting point was the eye-watering valuations attached to private AI leaders. He qu…
Serenity, the small-cap-focused investor who tracks the upstream chokepoints feeding the AI buildout, spent Thursday connecting a run of supply-chain data points into a single message: the optical shortage is deepening, and the market still isn't pricing it. Memory and the Korean proxy. He flagged strength in EWY, the iShares South Korea ETF he treats as a concentrated, leveraged bet on Samsung a…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker who builds his portfolio by back-mapping the AI supply chain, turned his attention today to robotics rather than his usual photonics chokepoints, reacting to a landmark event in the humanoid space. A new public benchmark for humanoids. Chinese robotics firm Unitree (listed in Shanghai under 688836) made its market debut, and Serenity noted the scale of the rec…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, spent Tuesday away from his usual laser-and-substrate hunting ground and instead trained his attention on a humbler component: the multi-layer ceramic capacitor, or MLCC. MLCCs are the tiny ceramic capacitors that regulate power on virtually every circuit board; a single AI server can carry thousands of them, and the…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, spent Monday celebrating a thesis he says is finally showing up in the trade press — and flagging where he thinks the next supply squeeze forms. The indium phosphide squeeze he predicted. The stock-picker's day centered on a report describing the largest-ever price hike for indium phosphide (InP) substrates, the comp…
Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed portfolio this site tracks, spent the weekend sifting news rather than trading, and posted a running digest of the items he found meaningful. His central takeaway was blunt: the AI supply chain keeps tightening, and most of the day's headlines slot neatly into positions he already holds. Memory supercycle. The standout for him was Sandisk (SNDK), the…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose reconstructed positions this site tracks, spent Friday focused on a policy development he sees as a direct tailwind for one of his highest-conviction bets: reports that the US government is urging Apple (AAPL) not to source memory chips from Chinese suppliers. Why it matters to his thesis. Memory is one of the central pillars of Serenity's portfolio. He …
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, spent Friday on a single but central theme: the shifting timelines for glass-core substrates, the next-generation chip packaging material that sits at the heart of one of his highest-conviction holdings. The delays. He pointed to two pieces of news out of Korea. Samsung Electro-Mechanics, he noted, has pushed the sta…
It was a quiet, reflective day from the stock-picker known as Serenity, who used a single post to step back from the trade and acknowledge just how impenetrable his corner of the market can look to outsiders. Serenity's investing approach centers on what he calls the AI photonics buildout — the shift toward moving data inside data centers with light rather than copper wires. His method is to back…
Serenity, the stock-picker whose portfolio is reconstructed here daily, spent Tuesday parsing Lumentum's earnings call, which he treated as broad validation of his central bet: that the light sources feeding AI optical networks are a scarce, high-value chokepoint. Lumentum's call reinforces the photonics core. Lumentum (LITE) is the large-cap incumbent in optical components that Serenity holds as…
Serenity, the stock-picker who back-maps NVIDIA's roadmap to hunt the small upstream suppliers feeding the AI buildout, spent Tuesday reacting to a busy news flow across data centers and robotics, before capping the day with a personal milestone. A giant colocation contract, and the ex-miners "growing up." His first note picked apart a newly announced deal between Riot Platforms (RIOT) — a Bitcoi…
Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed portfolio this site tracks, spent Monday looking ahead rather than trading, laying out a schedule of near-term events he expects to move the corners of the AI supply chain he favors. His overarching approach is to front-run NVIDIA's roadmap by owning the small upstream "chokepoints" — the lasers, substrates and optical parts that the big AI names quie…
Serenity, the stock-picker whose calls are reconstructed and tracked here, spent Sunday returning to the position that anchors his entire portfolio — and using fresh industry data points to reinforce it. Sivers back in focus. The stock-picker revisited his revenue model for Sivers (SIVE), a tiny Swedish-listed maker of indium phosphide (InP) continuous-wave (CW) DFB lasers. InP is the compound-se…
Serenity, the stock-picker who builds his portfolio by hunting the small upstream suppliers that feed the AI buildout, spent Friday dissecting the latest earnings from Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) — and came away more convinced, not less, in his core thesis around optical light sources. AAOI is a Texas-based, vertically integrated maker of optical transceivers (the components that turn data int…
Serenity, the small-cap-focused stock-picker who back-maps the AI buildout to hunt the obscure upstream suppliers everyone quietly depends on, spent Wednesday tracking a theme he has pushed for months: co-packaged optics (CPO), the practice of placing the optical engine right next to the switch or GPU die to save power and boost bandwidth. His read today was that the long-promised CPO ramp is no l…
On a quiet day for new calls, Serenity — the stock-picker whose reconstructed portfolio this site tracks — put the spotlight on a single name: Rocket Lab (RKLB). He drew attention to a fresh $397 million contract awarded to the company by the US Space Force. According to his note, the deal covers building out Rocket Lab's "Flatellite" satellite line and launching them aboard Neutron, the company'…
Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, spent Tuesday reinforcing one of his highest-conviction bets: that the memory-chip industry is heading into a multi-year, AI-driven supply crunch rather than the oversupply glut some skeptics still forecast. His focus was a report, attributed to trade outlet Digitimes citing industry sources, indicating that the largest memory…
It was a quiet, reflective day from Serenity, the stock-picker known for front-running the AI photonics buildout by hunting the small upstream suppliers — lasers, substrates and epiwafers — that the largest chipmakers and cloud operators quietly depend on. Rather than his usual supply-chain deep dives, his only comment today turned to the macro backdrop. Serenity flagged reports that the United S…
Earnings season handed Serenity, the stock-picker tracked here for his bet on the obscure upstream suppliers feeding the AI optical buildout, a batch of results he read as broad validation of his thesis. His method is to treat hyperscaler spending as a signal of where demand lands, then buy the smallest "chokepoint" supplier — a hard-to-replace vendor with few substitutes — the giants quietly depe…
Serenity, the stock-picker who front-runs the AI buildout by buying the obscure upstream suppliers that feed NVIDIA's roadmap, spent Thursday parsing an earnings call and marveling at a whipsaw market day. FORM's CPO signal. His most substantive read came from FormFactor (FORM), a maker of wafer-testing and probe-card equipment that Serenity treats as a bottleneck in the ramp of high-bandwidth me…
Serenity, the stock-picker who back-maps the AI buildout to find the small upstream suppliers big chipmakers quietly depend on, used a turbulent trading day to reframe a broad slide as short-term deleveraging rather than a break in his thesis. A selloff he views as mechanical, not fundamental His central argument today was that a sharp, correlated drop across his themes was driven by margined tr…
Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed portfolio this site tracks, kept his commentary brief but pointed on Sunday, weighing in on a pair of headlines that speak to the scale of money now sloshing through the AI infrastructure buildout. ## Nvidia's circular financing The bigger of the two items concerned NVIDIA (NVDA), the dominant designer of the graphics processors that power AI traini…
A relatively quiet day for Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose portfolio is built almost entirely around the optical plumbing of the AI buildout. His single note today unpacked a recent podcast appearance ("Market Insights: Photonics & AI") by the chief executive of Sivers (SIVE), the tiny Sweden-listed maker of indium-phosphide continuous-wave lasers that sits at the center of his book. In…
Serenity, the stock-picker known for front-running the AI buildout by buying the obscure upstream suppliers — lasers, substrates, memory — that the big names quietly depend on, spent Thursday parsing fresh earnings and news for confirmation of his core theses. Tesla as a supply-chain telegraph. Serenity combed through Tesla's (TSLA) earnings transcripts, flagging Elon Musk's repeated, high-convic…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker who builds his book by hunting the obscure upstream suppliers feeding the AI buildout, spent Tuesday chronicling one of the strongest single-session rallies his portfolio has seen this year. A broad AI snapback. He opened the day noting that memory shares tied to Japan's Kioxia jumped more than 17% and Samsung rose over 6%, while optical, neocloud and chip nam…
## A supply-chain deep dive, then a Neocloud rally Serenity — the small-cap stock-picker who front-runs the AI buildout by hunting the obscure upstream suppliers that Nvidia and the hyperscalers quietly depend on — spent Monday split between granular supply-chain research and a sharp move across the AI cloud names he tracks closely. ### Mapping the passive-component and substrate bottlenecks Hi…
It was a quiet Sunday for Serenity, the stock-picker who builds his portfolio by back-mapping the AI buildout to its most obscure upstream suppliers. He surfaced only a single, brief observation today — and named no tickers — but the note still fit neatly into the broader thesis he has been developing for months. Serenity's remark centered on the idea that leading frontier AI models appear to be …
It was a reflective, defensive Saturday for Serenity, the stock-picker whose approach centers on buying the small, upstream "chokepoint" suppliers — the lasers, substrates and packaging tools — that feed the broader AI buildout. Rather than announcing trades, he spent the day answering critics and disclosing the pain in his own book. Cultural divide, and a candid drawdown number. Serenity contras…
Serenity, the small-cap-focused stock picker whose reconstructed portfolio this site tracks, spent Friday returning to one of his highest-conviction stories: the idea that AI is driving a structural, multi-year shortage in computer memory rather than a passing price blip. The trigger was a research call from a Meritz Securities analyst arguing that the market is badly misreading the semiconductor…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose reconstructed portfolio this site tracks, spent Tuesday focused on two things: a blowout quarter from one of his higher-conviction holdings, and fresh data points feeding his long-running memory-shortage thesis. ## AEHR's qualification-to-volume moment The day's headline event was Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), which jumped more than 36% following its earnin…
Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed portfolio this site tracks, spent Tuesday parsing a round of public reassurances from NVIDIA chief Jensen Huang — comments the market read as an attempt to quash reports of slipping product timelines. For readers new to the name, NVIDIA (NVDA) is the dominant designer of AI accelerator chips, and it sits at the center of Serenity's entire investing m…
Serenity, the small-cap-focused stock picker who back-maps the AI supply chain to find the obscure upstream suppliers that NVIDIA and the hyperscalers depend on, spent today running through a long consolidated list of data points he found notable. He framed it less as reporting and more as sharing the raw intelligence he sifts each day. Several items reinforced his standing theses. Memory supercy…
A quiet, reflective day from Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks. Rather than adding to positions or laying out fresh supply-chain theses, he offered two loosely connected observations — one on the AI incumbents, one a self-deprecating aside about where the real returns have been hiding. A contrarian nod to OpenAI. Serenity floated the idea that Sam Altman and Op…
Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, spent Friday pushing back against what he framed as an overblown selloff in the AI optical-interconnect space — the corner of the market he cares about most. "Nothing has changed." His day began with a defense of the photonics complex, arguing that two catalysts behind the recent weakness — a Bloomberg report on Meta's compute…
Serenity, the stock-picker who back-maps the AI buildout to find the small upstream suppliers the giants quietly depend on, spent Thursday connecting a leaked corporate memo to two of his core positions and flagging a notable insider signal in his top holding. Meta memo lights up the memory and optics theses. The day's catalyst was a published internal memo from Meta Platforms (META), the social-…
A noisy macro tape gave Serenity, the stock-picker tracked here, plenty to react to on Tuesday, but his message was one of steadiness: hold the upstream chokepoints through the volatility. Space valuations reset higher. Serenity flagged a report that Blue Origin is raising roughly $10 billion at a $130 billion valuation, arguing the private-market anchor is good news for listed space names by com…
Serenity spent Tuesday pushing back against what he characterized as one of the sloppiest thematic selloffs of the year, as a wide swath of AI-linked names dropped anywhere from 4% to double digits. The selloff and his read. He tied the drop to three catalysts he considers hollow: a Meta (META) compute story he says contained nothing new, and two separate reports of delays to co-packaged optics —…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose reconstructed positions are tracked on this site, spent Monday pointing to a fresh Nomura research report that he reads as broad confirmation of his dominant investment theme: the upstream materials that feed AI photonics. At the center of that theme is indium phosphide, or InP — the compound-semiconductor material used to make the high-speed lasers and …
On a quiet US market holiday, the stock-picker known as Serenity stepped away from his usual supply-chain deep-dives and offered a broad, provocative thought instead of a trade. A macro musing, not a position Serenity framed himself as "bearish on humans" — a deliberately blunt way of arguing that cheap, mass-produced humanoid robots could displace large swaths of human labor. His rough marker w…
Most of Serenity's day was spent pushing back on what he described as a wave of misinformation around Meta Platforms (META), the social-media and AI giant that anchors the mega-cap sleeve of his portfolio. Meta functions in his framework as a profitable "hyperscaler" — a cash-generative internet company whose heavy AI spending, in his view, effectively bankrolls the smaller upstream semiconductor …
The clear event of the day for Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, was fresh capital hitting his single largest and highest-conviction holding. ## Sivers funds the scale-up Sivers (SIVE), the tiny Swedish maker of indium-phosphide (InP) lasers that Serenity treats as the core of his entire portfolio, closed an upsized institutional round of 700 million SEK. InP…
Today was less about trades and more about reflection. Serenity, the stock-picker known for back-mapping the AI supply chain to find obscure upstream "chokepoints" — critical suppliers with few substitutes — marked crossing 900,000 followers with a long, unusually personal note about how much harder the platform has become to navigate at scale. The post named no new positions, but it touched seve…
Serenity, the deep-value stock-picker who back-maps the AI buildout to its most obscure upstream suppliers, stepped back from the weeds today for a wide-angle reflection rather than a new trade. In an early-morning post he argued that the 2020-2030 stretch may be the most consequential decade for technology in human history, and that simply being an active investor through it feels remarkable. The…
A quiet day for fresh trade ideas, with Serenity — the stock-picker who builds his portfolio by back-mapping the AI supply chain and buying the small upstream chokepoint suppliers that the hyperscalers and Nvidia quietly depend on — turning his attention to a single macro story rather than any individual name. The catalyst was a Wall Street Journal report describing how China's Zhipu AI has repor…
Serenity, the small-cap stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, spent today threading a single piece of M&A news through his long-running optical-interconnect framework. The trigger: a report that Elon Musk's SpaceX (here tagged SPCX, the still-private rocket and satellite company whose anticipated mega-IPO Serenity has flagged as a defining liquidity event) has acquired Mesh, an …
Serenity, the stock-picker tracked on this site for his focus on the obscure upstream suppliers feeding the AI buildout, spent Friday balancing one piece of bullish thematic news against a broad, ugly day for global equities. Power semiconductors: pricing as demand validation. His most constructive note centered on a wave of price increases sweeping Chinese power-chip makers. He pointed to Yangji…
Serenity, the stock-picker who back-maps the AI supply chain to find obscure upstream "chokepoints" — critical suppliers with few substitutes — spent Wednesday in a reflective, self-critical mood, acknowledging a sharp drawdown and laying out a revised framework for when markets actually pay him for being early. Owning the losses. He jokingly rebranded his recent results "Diversified Losses," sin…
Serenity, the small-cap investor who back-maps the AI buildout to find obscure upstream suppliers, spent today on the demand side of his framework — the hyperscalers whose spending he treats as a telegraph for where his bottleneck bets pay off. He also flagged an amusing meme-stock episode tied to one of his core holdings. A Reddit-fueled rally in Wendy's Serenity noted with some amusement that …
Serenity, the stock-picker whose reconstructed views this site tracks, spent the day hammering his central conviction: that the obscure suppliers feeding the AI optical buildout are where the real money sits, not the crowded mega-caps. The CW laser chokepoint thesis, restated. His framework treats Nvidia's (NVDA) roadmap as a demand signal and hunts the smallest upstream bottleneck. Today he lean…
Serenity, the stock-picker who hunts the small upstream suppliers feeding the AI buildout, spent Saturday mostly on a single new name — a Korean optical company — while reaffirming where his real conviction lies. Supply chains as a trade weapon He opened by arguing that the real leverage in trade negotiations sits in frontier supply chains, not consumer-goods exports, pointing to chokepoints — c…
Serenity, the stock-picker tracked here for his bet on the obscure upstream suppliers feeding the AI buildout, spent Saturday airing what he called unfinished research: a hunt for holding companies that trade well below the value of the businesses they own. The NAV-discount hunt. A NAV discount is when a parent trades for less than its stake in a listed subsidiary is worth — a setup he likes when…
Serenity spent Friday taking unusually candid stock of his own portfolio, walking through what has worked, what has hurt, and where he thinks he simply missed. A rare honest scorecard. He reiterated that his book rests on three pillars — neoclouds/AI power, the memory supercycle, and AI photonics — and argued he landed on the standout in each: Nebius (NBIS), his favored AI cloud and "next hypersc…
Serenity, the small-cap-focused stock-picker who back-maps the AI buildout to its most obscure upstream suppliers, had a busy day spanning valuation arbitrage, a fresh catalyst in one of his European holdings, and a recap of his two dominant themes. The NAV-discount hunt. He opened by siding with activist Palliser Capital on Taiwan-listed WUS Printed Circuit (2316), a PCB maker he owns. His gripe…
A busy day for Serenity, the stock-picker who builds his portfolio by back-mapping the AI buildout to its smallest upstream suppliers. The recurring idea is the "chokepoint" — a critical part of the supply chain with few substitutes that the whole AI rollout depends on, particularly the light sources for co-packaged optics (CPO), where the optical engine sits beside the switch or GPU chip. The CW…
A busy session for Serenity, the stock-picker who hunts the small upstream suppliers feeding the AI buildout, as fresh reporting appeared to back several of his longest-held theses at once. The laser chokepoint moves into focus. Serenity flagged industry reports that AMD — the accelerator and CPU maker pushing into co-packaged optics (placing the optical engine next to the chip to save power) via…