$AXTI

Does he own it?

Explicit first-person ownership: stated outright he is long shares (Feb 3), listed AXTI at 2.5% in a detailed portfolio-weight breakdown (Feb 7), repeatedly cited his own position P&L (up 550%, 680%, 1000%+ unrealized), and named it among "functional monopolies that I own." Unambiguous holding, not mere coverage.

His thesis

AXT is the upstream chokepoint for indium phosphide (InP) substrates and feedstock, the critical material for the photonics/optical-interconnect buildout powering AI datacenters. He argues AXT controls ~40% of the InP supply chain end-to-end (raw materials, refining, pBN crucibles, substrates) in a duopoly with Sumitomo, and that China export controls hobble Japanese rivals, handing AXT pricing power. He expects NAND-style price hikes as hyperscaler photonics demand ramps, making traditional P/E/P/S valuation irrelevant for a strategic monopoly.

How his view evolved

Started Jan as a short-term "supply shock" risk-managed trade; by Feb he upgraded conviction, declared himself long shares, and reframed it as a multi-year flagship CORE holding. Took victory laps as it 10x'd ($12 to $140+), later flagging dilution-vote risk but holding.

Key points

• Explicitly long shares; disclosed 2.5% portfolio weight and repeated huge position gains
• Thesis: AXT is the multi-layer InP material chokepoint for AI photonics, with monopoly pricing power
• His self-described most legendary call (~$12 to $140), validated by export controls, govt action, LITE CEO remarks

Derived from a holistic read of his public posts — paraphrased, never quoted. See his actual posts about $AXTI on X ↗