$LMT
5/10Does he own it?
No first-person ownership of LMT. It appears only inside lists of defense names ($NOC/$RTX/$AVAV) for macro commentary. His disclosed positions are $CPSH and a generic "defense and oil" hedge basket; he never says he's long LMT, added, or holds a weight. Mega-cap mentioned as coverage, not a holding.
His thesis
Treats LMT as a bellwether for the defense/oil "war trade" benefiting from the $1T defense budget and Iran/Israel escalation. Notes LMT already rallied hard (most of its 1-year gains in a recent month) and argues the move was front-run by institutions, so rotating into it at all-time highs may be a mistake. Separately critical of the cost model: blowing multi-million-dollar missiles on cheap drones lines contractors' pockets versus cheaper directed-energy weapons.
How his view evolved
Starts as a name in a defense beneficiary list, becomes a marker of the frontrun war-trade rally, then a sarcastic/critical reference on inefficient missile spending. Sector-positive throughout but never converts to a personal LMT position.
Key points
- Cited as a top defense beneficiary of Iran conflict and the $1T budget
- Warns the defense rally was already front-run, so chasing LMT at ATHs is risky
- Critiques expensive-missile economics vs cheaper directed-energy weapons
Derived from a holistic read of his public posts — paraphrased, never quoted. See his actual posts about $LMT on X ↗