$SIVE
sivers10/10Does he own it?
Overwhelming first-person ownership: opens by saying he is long at ~$140M cap, repeatedly states he is holding and will not sell a share, and says he bought roughly 0.5-1% of the whole company. Lists it among names he owns. The 0.5-1% figure is a stake in the company, not a book weight, so no portfolio percent is disclosed.
His thesis
A tiny Swedish-listed InP CW DFB laser maker is the overlooked upstream light-source chokepoint for the coming co-packaged-optics and silicon-photonics buildout. Designed into Jabil 1.6T, Marvell/Celestial, Ayar, Poet, O-Net, Lightmatter and others feeding hyperscalers, plus Apple silicon-photonics and CHIPS Act defense work. Trades at a fraction of multi-billion peers; fabless scaling via Win Semi de-risks capacity. He frames it as the next Lumentum.
How his view evolved
Started as a high-conviction long at ~$140M cap; conviction only grew as Jabil deal, Ayar exclusivity hints, CHIPS Act funds, NASDAQ/MSCI inclusion and an ownership shift from Swedish retail to US institutions appeared to validate it. Pivots increasingly to an M&A/TAM-expansion narrative; never wavers.
Key points
- Explicitly long and refuses to sell; bought ~0.5-1% of the company itself
- Sees it as the laser chokepoint for the CPO supercycle and his top pick / next 10x
- Repeatedly cites Jabil 1.6T, Ayar, Marvell, Apple and CHIPS Act as validation
Derived from a holistic read of his public posts — paraphrased, never quoted. See his actual posts about $SIVE on X ↗