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$SMCI

super micro computer5/10
Probably not ownedMINORbullishUS · United States7 posts

Does he own it?

One first-person signal: he says he swing-traded SMCI (with GLXY/IREN) as a tax-harvest play early in the year — a brief past trade, not a held position. He never lists it among his stated core longs, gives no weight, and otherwise treats it as coverage and as a historical analogy for a small-cap that 30x'd. No current "I'm long/added/holding" language.

His thesis

Views SMCI as cheap after a heavy selloff from $100+ to the $20s-30s, trading near 10-11x forward earnings even after stripping out smuggling-related revenue. Sees margin concerns as overdone given overseas/sovereign-AI expansion and continued revenue growth toward $36B+. Treats the China chip-smuggling DOJ case as largely priced in and the company itself as insulated (not a named defendant). Frames it as a contrarian buying opportunity rather than a high-conviction holding.

How his view evolved

Early year he swing-traded it on the dip and rated it a mid-tier "Buy." By March he reframed it analytically as a contrarian value play if it fell below ~$24 amid the DOJ smuggling case. Later mentions are purely as a technical reference point, not active interest.

Key points

Derived from a holistic read of his public posts — paraphrased, never quoted. See his actual posts about $SMCI on X ↗