$TOWA

Does he own it?

In the opening post he lists Towa first among six "functional monopolies" he says he personally owns, and explicitly states he is holding all of them. That is a direct first-person ownership statement, not just coverage. No percent weight given.

His thesis

Towa is a near-monopoly supplier of compression molding equipment essential to HBM memory packaging. He frames it as a forgotten beneficiary of the new HBM4 capex cycle, receiving unavoidable inflows from Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung as they build out HBM4 lines. He sees it as hyper-cyclical but a steady compounder during memory upcycles, likely to re-rate, with upstream test/yield earnings (VIAV, FORM) confirming an aggressive memory production ramp. Even hybrid bonding still requires Towa.

How his view evolved

Started by naming it as an owned monopoly, then built a detailed HBM4 cyclical-beneficiary thesis, then tracked it as a slow but steady creeper, repeatedly calling it boring but persistently grinding higher like a quiet compounder.

Key points

• Monopoly in HBM compression molding; unavoidable capex from major memory makers
• Positioned as an overlooked beneficiary of the HBM4 cycle, expecting a re-rating
• Hyper-cyclical but behaves like a steady, boring compounder during memory upcycles

Derived from a holistic read of his public posts — paraphrased, never quoted. See his actual posts about $TOWA on X ↗