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2026-06-26

Serenity flags power-semi price hikes amid a global selloff that gutted his high-beta photonics and space longs

Serenity, the stock-picker tracked on this site for his focus on the obscure upstream suppliers feeding the AI buildout, spent Friday balancing one piece of bullish thematic news against a broad, ugly day for global equities.

Power semiconductors: pricing as demand validation. His most constructive note centered on a wave of price increases sweeping Chinese power-chip makers. He pointed to Yangjie Technology's second hike of the year — a 10%–15% rise across its full lineup effective July 1 — alongside similar moves from China Resources Micro, Silan Microelectronics and NCE Power, citing a Digitimes report that nearly every major Chinese maker has raised prices in 2026. Crucially, he read the increases as demand-driven rather than cost-driven, pulled by AI data centers, energy systems and EVs. This feeds his "AI power / grid bottleneck" theme, the idea that the unglamorous business of moving electricity into data centers is set to re-rate. He framed the hikes as a positive read-through for US-listed power-semi names from Alpha and Omega Semiconductor (AOSL), a maker of MOSFETs and power devices, to Power Integrations (POWI), a power-management chip designer he treats not as a holding but as evidence — POWI cites the foundry XFAB in its filings, and both names sit upstream of Nvidia's coming shift to 800V DC power architecture for AI racks. He also flagged the raw-material layer — copper, tin, molding compounds and packaging consumables — as second-order beneficiaries, and argued less China-driven price pressure plus firmer pricing is a clean win for the Western power-semi trade.

The selloff hit his high-beta book hard. The bullish framing came against a grim tape. Serenity described a global correction underway with no clear bottom, noting Korea's Kospi down more than 8% (home to memory giants Samsung and SK Hynix), the Nikkei off nearly 5%, and Taiwan's TWSE down close to 4%. He acknowledged that two of his own conviction longs had been clipped 30%–40%: Soitec (SOI), the near-monopoly maker of silicon-on-insulator substrates that underpin co-packaged optics and silicon photonics — the chokepoint material thesis he holds as a multi-year, core position — and Rocket Lab (RKLB), the reusable-launch and space company he treats as SpaceX's main listed rival and a generational hold. Drawing on past experience, he observed that high-beta names tend to get hit harder but also tend to front-run index drops and recover earlier, while cautioning that when major indexes are falling 3%–4% a day it is rarely a comfortable stretch.

SoftBank and the OpenAI overhang. Separately, he highlighted a roughly 13.5% drop in SoftBank after an investor presentation landed poorly, nodding to reports that an OpenAI IPO could slip to 2027 amid Sam Altman's reported desire for a $1 trillion valuation. He invoked the "goose, not the eggs" framing — a reminder that the underlying franchise matters more than any single near-term print.

The net of the day: a fundamentally encouraging signal on power-semi pricing — demand strong enough to push hikes through the supply chain — set against a market-wide drawdown that punished exactly the kind of high-conviction, high-beta upstream names Serenity favors. He offered no sign of trimming, treating the volatility as the price of holding chokepoint plays through a correction rather than a reason to abandon the thesis.

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