Serenity calls the 2020s a "goated" decade, framing his book as a bet on the whole frontier-tech wave
Serenity, the deep-value stock-picker who back-maps the AI buildout to its most obscure upstream suppliers, stepped back from the weeds today for a wide-angle reflection rather than a new trade. In an early-morning post he argued that the 2020-2030 stretch may be the most consequential decade for technology in human history, and that simply being an active investor through it feels remarkable. There were no fresh positions, sizing changes, or price calls — just a tour of the themes he believes are converging at once.
His framework normally treats Nvidia's roadmap as a telegraph for where demand lands, then hunts the smallest "chokepoint" supplier — a laser maker, a substrate house, a packaging tool — that the giants quietly depend on. Today he widened that lens to the broader frontier: reusable rockets and orbital compute, the approach toward artificial superintelligence at labs like Anthropic and OpenAI, humanoid robots, directed-energy lasers, autonomous vehicles, and eventual quantum commercialization.
A few names anchored the riff. Rocket Lab (RKLB), a US small-launch and space-systems company he counts among his highest-conviction long-term holds, was paired with SpaceX (SPCX) — the privately held launch giant whose blockbuster debut he has flagged as a defining mega-IPO. Serenity frames Rocket Lab as SpaceX's main listed rival, positioned to benefit as the broader space buildout accelerates; he has said he went long around $16 and held through volatility to all-time highs. He tied both to the idea of "orbital compute," the notion that data-center capacity eventually migrates to space.
On the optical side he cited Lumentum (LITE), the US laser-and-optics maker he treats as the quality, large-cap incumbent of his dominant AI-photonics theme. Lumentum supplies optics tied to Google's TPU program and rides hyperscaler capex; he uses it as the benchmark against which he pitches higher-upside smaller photonics names. He linked it, half in jest, to EOS (EOS.ASX) — Australia's Electro Optic Systems, which operates adaptive-optics ground stations and figures in his "Star Wars" directed-energy and space optical-comms theme — drawing a line from battlefield laser beams to the lasers lighting up AI data-center interconnects.
Finally, Tesla (TSLA) appeared in its usual role for Serenity: the anchor of a robotics thesis rather than a holding. He admires Elon Musk's execution and sees the Optimus humanoid program as the engine of an entire robotics supply chain, but prefers to play it through under-the-radar component suppliers than to own the carmaker directly. Today's mention slotted Tesla alongside Waymo as evidence that autonomous driving is becoming routine in cities.
The post was observational and unusually unguarded for a value investor — closer to a thesis statement about the era than a recommendation. For readers tracking his book, the takeaway is less about any single ticker and more about conviction: Serenity remains positioned across space, photonics, robotics and AI compute because he believes these threads are maturing simultaneously, and he sees that convergence as the core reason to stay invested. He closed by asking, simply, what comes next.
*This is derived commentary for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.*