Serenity reads FORM's CPO acceleration as early proof of his photonics thesis amid a violent relief rally
Serenity, the stock-picker who front-runs the AI buildout by buying the obscure upstream suppliers that feed NVIDIA's roadmap, spent Thursday parsing an earnings call and marveling at a whipsaw market day.
FORM's CPO signal. His most substantive read came from FormFactor (FORM), a maker of wafer-testing and probe-card equipment that Serenity treats as a bottleneck in the ramp of high-bandwidth memory and, increasingly, co-packaged optics — the practice of putting the optical light-engine right next to a switch or GPU die to save power and boost bandwidth (CPO). He flagged that FormFactor's systems revenue nearly doubled on accelerating CPO work, with management raising its 2026 CPO revenue outlook to well above its earlier $10–20 million range and describing a short-term acceleration. He noted the CPO test volume appears to flow through a 10% customer tied to TSMC's (TSM) COUPE photonics packaging — which he reads as mapping back to NVIDIA (NVDA) CPO products. TSMC is the foundry Serenity calls the indispensable center of the whole AI trade and holds as an anchor; NVDA is his demand telegraph, not a holding. His takeaway: test and equipment players show up in earnings before the laser and optical-engine volumes ramp, so this is early confirmation that CPO is starting to "go brrr." He owns no FORM position and framed it purely as ecosystem validation.
The deleveraging and the rebound. Serenity spent much of the day on the market's mechanics rather than fundamentals. He referenced turmoil around a well-known hedge fund raising capital after sharp July drawdowns in names including Bloom Energy (BE), Sandisk (SNDK) and SHAZ, arguing the sell-off looked like a forced-deleveraging overshoot rather than a thesis break. Bloom Energy is a fuel-cell power company he lumps into his AI-power/grid basket but does not own; Sandisk is a core holding and his template "supercycle" name — he argues AI-driven NAND flash demand structurally outstrips supply, with repeated price hikes and cheap forward earnings.
By the afternoon he was cataloguing a violent relief rally, listing double-digit single-day gains across Nebius (NBIS), Iris Energy (IREN), SHAZ, Sandisk, Bloom, SKHY and Intel (INTC). Notably, two of those names sit on opposite sides of his book: Nebius is his highest-conviction "Neocloud" long — an AI-cloud operator he values on a sum-of-parts basis and prefers for its NVIDIA-backed, non-dilutive financing — while Iris Energy is his favored bearish foil, an operator he faults for a roughly $6 billion at-the-market equity offering he believes structurally caps shareholder upside. Intel, up double digits on the day, is his policy-driven bet that Washington won't let its domestic foundry champion fail.
Serenity offered no new buys or sells today, treating the session as a deleveraging-driven dislocation and reiterating that CPO's appearance in earnings is the change worth watching.
*This is derived commentary, not investment advice.*