Serenity leans on Jensen Huang's "no memory glut" call to defend his supercycle thesis, spotlights ESMT
Serenity, the stock-picker who builds his portfolio by back-mapping the AI buildout's upstream chokepoints, spent Thursday reinforcing one of his core themes: the structural memory shortage. His framework treats NVIDIA (NVDA) — the dominant AI-chip designer — as a demand signal rather than a holding, using its roadmap and procurement to telegraph where scarcity will land. Today he pointed to comments from NVIDIA chief Jensen Huang, who pushed back on a widely circulated Korean view that new memory capacity would leave the sector oversupplied — a "red ocean" — by 2029.
Serenity's read was that Huang, citing ever-rising memory appetite in data centers, dismissed the glut scenario, and that NVIDIA likely has the clearest visibility of anyone into supply and emerging capacity because it is driving the architectural shifts that consume that memory. He framed this as a direct counter to the pervasive "it's all over" sentiment now hanging over memory stocks. In support of the durability argument, he noted reports that Samsung has already committed the majority of its capacity well into the next decade, and that hyperscalers such as Alphabet (GOOGL) are said to be locking in long-term memory agreements stretching toward 2035. Alphabet matters here as his demand anchor: a cash-rich hyperscaler funding an enormous AI capex program, whose purchasing behavior helps validate his upstream bets.
The memory supercycle names. The day's sharper focus was on eMemory-adjacent legacy memory. Serenity highlighted ESMT (ESMEMORY / EMEMORY-linked Taiwanese memory maker eMemory — here referring to EMEMORY/ESMT, a supplier of legacy DRAM and SRAM products), which he said held up better than the broader AI trade during recent weakness. His original case rested on durability and sensitivity to price hikes from Taiwanese foundry PSMC, and he argued fresh industry commentary now backs that up: reported tightness in legacy memory products lasting through 2028 or beyond, further Q4 price increases, operating performance expected to improve from the prior quarter, and a supply shortfall he cited as exceeding 30% (per Digitimes).
On valuation he was blunt about why the name appeals to his deep-value instinct. Annualizing off July earnings, he described a company with a roughly $2.15 billion market capitalization generating around $107 million of net income a month — implying something near $1.28 billion annualized — which he characterized as an extraordinarily low multiple on run-rate earnings, with price hikes and tightness still ahead.
The through-line today was defensive conviction rather than new buying: Serenity using Huang's visibility and specific long-term-agreement data points to argue the memory shortage has years to run, even as market sentiment swings pessimistic. Readers should treat this as a paraphrase of his public commentary, not investment advice.