A busy day for Serenity, the stock-picker who builds his portfolio by back-mapping the AI buildout to its smallest upstream suppliers. The recurring idea is the "chokepoint" — a critical part of the supply chain with few substitutes that the whole AI rollout depends on, particularly the light sources for co-packaged optics (CPO), where the optical engine sits beside the switch or GPU chip.

The CW-laser bottleneck takes center stage. Serenity pointed to a TrendForce report describing AMD (the GPU and CPU maker chasing Nvidia in AI accelerators) placing procurement orders to lock down continuous-wave (CW) laser supply — the light source that feeds silicon photonics and CPO. He read this as a domino effect: with Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent already tied up in multi-year deals with Nvidia, and Lumentum itself said to be sourcing from Japanese suppliers running flat-out, he argued there is little independent Western CW capacity left beyond Sivers (SIVE), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and possibly Macom. SIVE, the tiny Swedish indium-phosphide laser maker, is his single largest and highest-conviction position; he disclosed holding both it and AAOI. His thesis: as Nvidia and now AMD sign long-term agreements, other hyperscalers will scramble next, proving how scarce and valuable the laser chokepoint is.

AAOI defense. Serenity pushed back on bears, noting AAOI's scarce laser capacity and US-based 800G/1.6T transceiver manufacturing, and flagged management's projected revenue ramp into late 2027–2028. He likened the speed of that ramp to Nebius (NBIS).

Glass substrates and sovereign chips. He reiterated his case for LPKF (LPK), the German firm whose laser etching tools he calls the near-monopoly equipment chokepoint for glass-core substrates — the next-generation chip packaging he expects to ramp through 2026–2027. Separately, he argued X-FAB (XFAB), the European foundry with a silicon-photonics arm, is an overlooked beneficiary of Europe's push for "sovereign AI" supply chains, though he conceded the market hasn't connected the dots and the company markets itself poorly.

Memory test inflection. Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), which makes burn-in stress-test equipment for AI chips and photonics, jumped about 11% after announcing a follow-up production order from a major silicon-photonics customer — exactly the qualification-to-volume transition Serenity has been betting on. He noted the stock was in the $30s two months ago and now sits near $116.

Neocloud scorecard. He revisited his long-NBIS, short-IREN call. NBIS, the best-financed AI cloud in his view (backed by Nvidia funding), hit all-time highs, while Iris Energy (IREN) remains stalled, which he attributes to its roughly $6 billion at-the-market equity offering diluting shareholders.

Other notes. Serenity took a swipe at a Bernstein call for a sharp drop in Kioxia, citing the firm's earlier low price target on Intel (INTC) — his policy-driven US-foundry bet — which has since climbed sharply. He also flagged, in passing, a positive on-air mention of space play SPCX.

*This is derived commentary, not investment advice.*