Serenity's daily semi sweep flags memory hikes, TSMC photonics ramp and an Intel-Apple policy twist
Serenity, the small-cap-focused stock picker who back-maps the AI supply chain to find the obscure upstream suppliers that NVIDIA and the hyperscalers depend on, spent today running through a long consolidated list of data points he found notable. He framed it less as reporting and more as sharing the raw intelligence he sifts each day. Several items reinforced his standing theses.
Memory supercycle. The headline for his book was memory. He noted a fifth general NAND flash price hike this year, a market he sees swelling toward roughly $489B next year on RAG and inference demand, with Samsung and SK Hynix scrambling into emergency fab investments — a direct read-through to his core Micron (MU) position, the "made-in-America" DRAM/HBM/NAND play he treats as a structural winner. He also flagged Micron committing $500M to GlobalWafers' US capacity, HBM prices projected to double in 2027 on NVIDIA's Rubin platform, and Nanya reporting nearly 80% gross margins with quadrupled capex — all signs, in his view, that the shortage thesis is playing out. China's CXMT IPO on the 16th, he suggested, should spotlight the broader memory chain.
Photonics and packaging chokepoints. TSMC (TSM), the foundry he calls the indispensable center of the AI buildout, is reportedly planning a 30x expansion of photonic integrated circuit capacity by 2028 — a signal that co-packaged optics (putting the optical engine next to the switch or GPU die) is moving from roadmap to volume. NVIDIA (NVDA), which he uses purely as a demand telegraph rather than a holding, is co-hosting a CPO strategy conference with NTT later this month. He also tracked new CoWoS packaging-equipment entrants and continued advanced-packaging investment feeding names like Amkor (AMKR), his favored US OSAT reshoring long, which he expects to benefit as Arizona test capacity ramps into 2028.
Policy and the megacaps. The most eye-catching item was a report that the US administration pressured Apple (AAPL) to source from Intel (INTC) in exchange for a tariff exemption — a nudge away from TSMC alignment that fits Serenity's thesis that Washington won't let its domestic foundry champion fail. Corning (GLW), which he views as the glass-substrate and optical-fiber incumbent, drew a cautious note: its glass bridge has potential but faces entrenched competition near-term. On Meta (META), a profitable hyperscaler he owns, he flagged its "Iris" device entering mass production in September via Broadcom (AVGO) and a plan to double compute to 14GW by 2027.
Space and robotics. He noted Starlink Gen 3 (SPCX) scaling to 100,000 units, potentially straining switch suppliers, and Tesla's (TSLA) aggressive Optimus procurement targets rippling into obscure component makers.
None of today's notes carried explicit trades; the tone was observational, cataloguing catalysts that support positions he already holds.