Serenity, the stock-picker who back-maps the AI buildout to find the small upstream suppliers everyone quietly depends on, spent the day defending his memory thesis and dumping a wide-ranging set of supply-chain observations.

The memory case, quantified. In his first note he laid out projected second-half 2026 price hikes across legacy memory — SLC NAND up triple digits, high-capacity NOR near double, and various DDR grades climbing steadily — arguing these stack on first-half increases to produce eye-watering cumulative gains for the year. His point: these price moves lift blended net income far more than the wafer-cost inflation flowing up from foundries like Powerchip (PSMC), a Taiwanese legacy chipmaker whose wafer hikes he cites as the cost side of the equation. He expects Q3 earnings from fabless legacy-memory names to run hot. This underpins his core "memory supercycle" longs Micron (MU, a ~10% position and his "next Nvidia" memory bet) and Sandisk (SNDK, his template NAND pricing-power play via Kioxia).

A week of confirmations. His second post was a roundup of items he found bullish. He flagged Intel's (INTC) CEO — Serenity holds Intel as a ~5% policy/national-security bet — saying some memory prices have risen fivefold to sevenfold with the shortage worsening into 2027. He noted supply-chain reports that Kioxia, SK Hynix and Samsung have locked large shares of capacity into multi-year long-term agreements, which he reads as the opposite of a glut.

On his dominant photonics theme — the light sources and foundries feeding co-packaged optics (CPO), where the optical engine sits beside the switch or GPU die — he tracked a capacity deal between GlobalFoundries (GFS) and Marvell (MRVL) for silicon-germanium used in pluggable and CPO parts. He watches GlobalFoundries closely because Sivers (SIVE), his highest-conviction pick — a tiny Swedish maker of indium-phosphide continuous-wave lasers, the light source for silicon photonics — is GlobalFoundries' reference laser. Marvell is his custom-ASIC-and-optics satellite long and the supply-chain hub linking back to Sivers. He also noted Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) — his "TSM of photonics" foundry core holding — beginning volume shipments of laser-integrated optical engines with a partner he intends to research.

He tied together a recurring "supply, not demand, is the limit" thread: Ciena (CIEN), a coherent optical-networking name he watches loosely, guided to ~30% growth through FY2029 while calling components the constraint — an echo, he argued, of the same scarcity Nvidia (NVDA) and its upstream chain face. Nvidia is his framework's compass, not a holding; he front-runs its suppliers instead.

Elsewhere he cited Nebius (NBIS), his favored neocloud and a ~10% position, raising AI cloud prices for the second time in three months, calling it a positive read-through for rivals CoreWeave (CRWV) and Iris Energy (IREN) — though he remains bearish on IREN over dilution. He also noted Amazon's (AMZN) generator deal with Generac (GNRC) and warrant structures worth watching, name-checking AAOI, QCOM, ARM and the AMD/Intel rally on rate moves as high-beta overshoot.

*This is derived commentary, not advice.*