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2026-06-20

Serenity hunts NAV-discount holding companies feeding the AI supply chain, and revisits his most-hated calls

Serenity, the stock-picker tracked here for his bet on the obscure upstream suppliers feeding the AI buildout, spent Saturday airing what he called unfinished research: a hunt for holding companies that trade well below the value of the businesses they own.

The NAV-discount hunt. A NAV discount is when a parent trades for less than its stake in a listed subsidiary is worth — a setup he likes when the underlying business is still growing. His standout was Wistron (Taiwan: 3231), a contract electronics maker whose Q1 revenue jumped 144% year-over-year and whose 35% stake in AI-server builder Wiwynn alone is worth roughly two-thirds of Wistron's ~$16bn value. He bracketed it with SIVE — his largest position, an indium-phosphide laser maker that supplies light sources for co-packaged optics (putting the optical engine next to the switch chip) — and CPO startup Ayar as a favored trio. He flagged similar gaps elsewhere: Sin-American Silicon owns 47% of wafer maker GlobalWafers (6488) yet trades at a fraction of that stake; Korea's Iljin Holdings and Simmtech Holdings (a PCB-substrate parent) show 5-6x NAV discounts, though he distrusts Korean governance for unlocking value. He singled out CAMT — an Israeli chip-inspection and advanced-packaging metrology firm in his "yield bottleneck" bucket — noting parent Priortech owns 21% of it. He was cool on Bit Digital (WYFI), calling its discount unclean given dilution and no AI-parent angle.

His preferred plays were ACMR, the US-listed semiconductor cleaning-equipment maker, and WUS, a substrate firm — both with H-share subsidiary listings he expects to surface value, the latter targeted by an activist. He suggested he may add to both Monday.

The validation lap. Serenity also posted a long retrospective on ideas that drew heavy early backlash before being vindicated. He cited AXTI, the InP-substrate supplier he says got him banned from a Reddit forum before peers' earnings confirmed its position; RPI, dismissed as a meme stock before posting 58% forward growth; and SIVE, attacked in Swedish media before partnerships with manufacturers JBL (Jabil) and foundry GFS (GlobalFoundries) and institutional buying landed.

He ran through more of his book: AAOI, the Texas-based vertically integrated optical-transceiver maker he frames as a Made-in-America photonics moonshot; LITE (Lumentum), his quality large-cap photonics incumbent tied to Google's optics; IQE, the distressed UK epiwafer foundry he sees re-rating on latent laser capacity; and SOI (Soitec), the SOI-wafer supplier. He also reiterated longs in memory-test name AEHR, Korea memory proxy EWY, foundry anchor TSM, custom-ASIC and CPO hub MRVL, neocloud NBIS (his preferred long against bearish IREN), space launcher RKLB, and INTC. He noted his more mixed stance on Robinhood (HOOD).

The thread was self-congratulatory in tone, and readers should weight it accordingly — survivorship bias cuts both ways, and he himself has flagged real risks in several of these names. Still, the through-line was consistent: he treats market backlash as a signal he's early, not wrong.

This is derived commentary, not investment advice.

Generated by the claude-opus-4-8 pipeline. Derived content; not investment advice.