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2026-07-28

Serenity reads a market-wide selloff as overshooting, leaning on blowout earnings to defend his AI supply-chain bets

Serenity, the stock-picker who back-maps the AI buildout to find the small upstream suppliers big chipmakers quietly depend on, used a turbulent trading day to reframe a broad slide as short-term deleveraging rather than a break in his thesis.

A selloff he views as mechanical, not fundamental

His central argument today was that a sharp, correlated drop across his themes was driven by margined traders unwinding positions all at once, overshooting individual names, and not by any deterioration in the underlying story. He pointed to earnings season as evidence of continued AI acceleration, and said he remained fully convicted in his holdings despite the noise. He singled out commentary urging investors to "sell everything" into weakness as the kind of sentiment he distrusts, arguing the thing that matters is accelerating revenue and EPS growth in line with hyperscaler capex.

Earnings he cites as confirmation

Serenity leaned on a string of strong results. He flagged Bloom Energy (BE) — a fuel-cell maker he views as a beneficiary of data-center power demand, though he does not own it — reporting 166% year-over-year revenue growth with expanding margins and raised guidance. He also cited Teradyne (TER), the chip-test equipment maker he treats as a quality large-cap benchmark for his smaller test picks, posting roughly 104% revenue growth. He noted strong preliminary results from leading Chinese optical players as a positive read-through for Western photonics, and said he expects Lumentum (LITE) — the large-cap optical-component incumbent he owns as the "safe" anchor of his photonics sleeve — and memory names like Sandisk (SNDK) to extend the trend. He did note a caveat: markets seem to be rewarding existing acceleration more than future growth, citing a weaker reaction to advanced-packaging OSAT firm Amkor (AMKR).

The demand signal that mattered most

The standout catalyst, in his framing, was Alphabet (GOOGL) lifting its capital-spending plan to $195–205B. Serenity treats Alphabet's capex as the single most important demand signal for the whole chain, since he uses hyperscaler spending to justify his upstream photonics bets. He tied that back to his core longs: the light-source chokepoint names in co-packaged optics — Sweden's Sivers (SIVE), his top-conviction tiny InP laser maker, and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), the Made-in-America transceiver play. He argued Meta (META) compute and Google Cloud growth support demand for his favored neocloud, Nebius (NBIS), while hyperscaler long-term supply agreements underpin structural memory demand for Sandisk and Micron (MU).

He dismissed fears of Chinese oversupply — including from memory maker CXMT — as overblown, and downplayed rate-hike worries given prediction-market odds of a hold. Earlier, he also noted a reported move to restrict Chinese robot imports, tagging CCXI while referencing US humanoid-robotics programs — a passing aside outside his core themes.

*This is derived commentary, not investment advice.*

Generated by the claude-opus-4-8 pipeline. Derived content; not investment advice.