A busy session for Serenity, the stock-picker who hunts the small upstream suppliers feeding the AI buildout, as fresh reporting appeared to back several of his longest-held theses at once.

The laser chokepoint moves into focus. Serenity flagged industry reports that AMD — the accelerator and CPU maker pushing into co-packaged optics (placing the optical engine next to the chip to save power) via its GlobalFoundries partnership — is racing to lock up continuous-wave (CW) laser supply. CW lasers are the light source for silicon photonics and CPO, and the report suggests hyperscalers want to secure them directly rather than be bottlenecked behind Nvidia. He named two beneficiaries he owns: Sivers (SIVE), the tiny Swedish indium-phosphide laser maker that is his largest and highest-conviction position, which he believes sits at "reference laser" level for AMD's program; and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), the vertically integrated Texas transceiver maker he calls the only pure made-in-America optical play. He argued incumbents Lumentum and Coherent are booked into 2028, especially on CW capacity, leaving room for merchant suppliers. He noted he predicted this dynamic — hyperscalers reaching upstream to lasers, epiwafers and InP substrates — last year.

A victory-lap throwback. Serenity revisited 2025 calls, noting AAOI has gone from a roughly $2B company to about $15B, Lumentum (LITE) from $26B to $74B, and AXT (AXTI), the InP substrate supplier, from $500M to over $7B. He framed today's ~$3B optical names like Sivers as déjà vu of those early entries. On the memory side, he pointed to Micron (MU) — now a $1.23T company — as a call that played out, alongside his concentration into Sandisk (SNDK) and the South Korea ETF EWY, a leveraged proxy for Samsung and SK Hynix, as expressions of his AI-driven NAND/DRAM supercycle thesis.

Defending the method. Pushing back on "memestock" and "scam" labels, Serenity detailed the work behind his AXTI thesis — mapping the InP substrate supply chain, tracking high-purity indium pricing, modeling bottleneck game theory, and watching government export-control actions — and said he still holds shares. He invited critics to argue the actual risks (export controls, pricing power) rather than personal attacks.

Macro and bubble talk. In a wide-ranging note, Serenity called AI the most disruptive technology in history and argued the buildout is sustainable upstream, where suppliers from Lumentum to SK Hynix capture huge profits. He sees the self-funding hyperscalers — Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) — as durable, is more lukewarm on Meta (META), wary of Oracle (ORCL), and sees genuine bubble risk in debt-laden neoclouds like CoreWeave (CRWV) and circular GPU-purchase arrangements involving Nvidia and AMD. He flagged OpenAI contagion as his biggest fear but, given its recent raise, expects the capex cycle to hold.

Finally, he noted wryly that SpaceX (SPCX) is now valued around $2.5T and reportedly acquired Cursor for $60B — proof, he joked, that Americans will buy anything futuristic regardless of valuation.

*Derived commentary, not advice.*