The stock-picker known online as @aleabitoreddit spent Tuesday taking a victory lap, prompted by a report that he says confirms the core of his entire investing approach.

The CW laser squeeze. Citing a TrendForce report, he flagged that AMD — the chipmaker chasing Nvidia (NVDA) in AI accelerators — is reportedly scrambling to lock down supply of continuous-wave (CW) lasers, the light source that powers silicon photonics and co-packaged optics (CPO, the practice of placing the optical engine right next to the switch or GPU die to cut power and lift bandwidth). The detail matters because it is precisely the "go upstream to avoid getting bottlenecked" move he predicted hyperscalers and chipmakers would make. He named two beneficiaries he owns: Sivers (SIVE), the tiny Swedish maker of indium-phosphide CW lasers that is his single highest-conviction bet, and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), the Texas-based vertically integrated transceiver maker he frames as a Made-in-America optical play. He argued the larger incumbents, Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent, are largely booked into 2028, with Lumentum especially constrained on CW capacity by existing EML (electro-absorption modulated laser) contracts — leaving room for the smaller suppliers.

The throwback. He revisited 2025 entry points to underscore how far the optical theme has run: AAOI from a ~$2B market cap to roughly $15B, Lumentum from ~$26B to ~$74B, and AXT (AXTI) — the indium-phosphide substrate supplier he calls his most "legendary" call — from ~$500M to ~$7B. He sees the same setup in today's ~$3B optical names like Sivers. On AXTI, which makes the InP substrate material that whole photonics supply chains depend on, he pushed back hard on critics who labeled his ideas "memestocks," recounting the supply-chain mapping, indium price tracking and export-control reading behind the thesis, which he says Reuters later echoed.

Memory and macro. He also revisited his memory-supercycle theme — the argument that AI demand has driven a structural NAND and DRAM shortage with multi-year price hikes. Micron (MU) has reached a ~$1.23T market cap, vindicating his "next Nvidia" framing, while he reiterated conviction in Sandisk (SNDK), his NAND pricing-power pick, and the South Korea ETF EWY as a proxy for Samsung and SK Hynix.

In a broader note, he called AI the most disruptive technology in human history and argued the buildout is fundable where hyperscalers spend from cash flow — Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) — while flagging more caution on Meta (META) and Oracle, and warning of "circular" financing risk among debt-funded neoclouds. He stressed he sees no bubble in upstream semiconductors, where he believes the profits will be outsized.

Lighter notes: he marveled that SpaceX (SPCX) now carries a roughly $2.5T market cap after its IPO and reportedly acquired Cursor for $60B — proof, he joked, that Americans will buy anything futuristic regardless of valuation.

*This is derived commentary, not investment advice.*